Asia morning brief: Tuesday 10 May 2016

Good morning, the main mover from Monday that continued on Tuesday in markets was $/JPY that grinded higher first past 107.70 resistance level before reaching 108.50 last night.  It continued to 108.83 this morning presumably on further stops triggered on impulsive bad shorts in markets on $/JPY post disappointing 28 April BOJ meeting.  $/JPY has a tendency to retrace higher by 3 to 4 big figures after an initial plunge following BOJ or Japan disappointment over the past year.  We have seen a rally from 116 back to 119 early this year prior to BOJ meeting where the initial negative rate announcement on 29 January 2016 caused a spike to 121 before plunging to 111 by 11 February.  We then retraced higher to 114.87 by 17 February where it chopped around till 29 March falling to 107.7 before rallying back to 111.97 prior to 28 April BOJ meeting & plunge to 105.52 in the latest leg lower.  If there is a pattern, we should see $/JPY retracing higher to 109 -/+ 30 pips where these will be great levels to be short $/JPY again.  Overnight Brazilian equities & BRL plunged after effort to impeach President Rousseff appeared to hit a roadblock Brazil markets in disarray as Impeachment vote annulled .  This might weigh further on EM/Asia bloc as a whole from here as the strong risk rally from February lows for EM/Asia is in question now.   Interesting that billionaire investor Carl Icahn has turned net short in equities by 149% in disclosure by his vehicle Icahn Enterprise Icahn net short position of 149% .  We can be entering a period soon where they latest popular consensus positions in the market gets shaken out where players have gone long EM/Asia equities & currencies, short U.S. treasuries, long gold and oil, short USD especially against AUD and CAD in G7 space besides EM/Asia .. the recent USD rally is already sign of bad positioning  USD jump catches traders short . For the superstitious traders out there, Mercury is in retrograde on Monday 9 May & crossing against the Sun as well which is doubly negative for risk Mercury retrograde . Hang on & good luck!


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