Asia morning brief: Fri 6 May 2016

Good morning, nothing much usually happens just ahead of U.S. employment report but last night, Fed’s James Bullard saw it fit to confuse market with another “Fed undecided on right path for rates” statement! Fed undecided on rate path . U.S. equities continued its gradual slide as the early support from higher WTI crude oil on Canada tar sands fire fizzled out Canada fires drive oil higher . Why should higher oil be better for stocks where humans will scratch their heads but machines algos ramp risk higher on such headlines!?  We continue in Asia on further derisking as RBA statement of monetary policy release showed lowered inflation forecasts & readiness to cut rates again RBA lowers inflation forecast & ready to cut again .  AUD/USD gapped lower to 0.7400 from 0.7460 post 9.30am (HK/SIN time) release.  I am still short equities via S&P500 with eminis put fly, Dow & Eurostoxx50 futures. Short AUD/USD & GBP/USD. Long TYM6 call condor expiry today for maximum payoff if between 131.25 to 131.50 (i.e, 10 year UST 10 bp lower to around 1.66% from current 1.76%).   Overshadowed by U.S. employment report might be the equally important Canadian’s employment report too where a weaker number will see USD/CAD higher to 1.3000 from 1.2860 now & oil lower to 43 from 46.35 (Dec16 contract) that I’m short.  We’re indeed seeing a classic risk off where USD gains across all G7 and EM/Asia currencies now with sliding equities.  I expect KRW & TWD to fall most in Asia where their stock markets had rebounded the most since February lows with government support & belated inflows due to EM ETFs ramp up recommended by various private banks & investment banks just 4 weeks ago.

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