Asia morning brief: Thur 5 May 2016

Good morning, Australia Retail Sales came out this morning slightly better at 0.4% vs 0.3% expected & AUD/USD grinded higher to 0.7490 from 0.7450 lows.  It feels like a day of consolidation post U.S. ADP last night which came weaker than expected at 156k vs 205k expected and U.S. stock continued their slow grind lower last night with S&P500, Nasdaq100 & Dow all off by -0.6%.  Notable moves in FX seen in GBP/USD that continued to be offered (falling from 1.4555 to 1.4461 intraday lows) on back of weaker than expected U.K. Contruction PMI out at 52 vs expected 54.1.  CAD continue to weaken as $/CAD marched higher to 1.2850 (intraday highs 1.2887 higher by 4 big figures in 36 hours!) as Canada Trade Balance worsened out at -3.4 billion deficit vs -1.2 billion expected and U.S. Crude Oil inventories out at 2.8 million vs 0.6 milion expected saw oil prices capped & reversing.  Have shorted Dec WTI Oil as signs of the rally squeeze from February lows are over and riding the positive carry contango out the curve.  Looks like Saxobank came out with report similar to my view Saxobank warns of crude oil rally over . Ahead of Friday’s U.S. employment report, added a TYM6 call condor 131 / 131.25 / 131.5 / 131.75 expiring tomorrow Friday for maximum payoff if 10-years UST yields fall 10bp lower to around 1.66%.  Tight trailing stops to protect profits in short AUD/USD, short GBP/USD with short Dow & Eurostoxx50 futures as it will be a crap shoot at best in guessing outcome of U.S. employment report that algos will drive it violently either way in that short span of time when out.

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