Let’s see what interest & bothers me from here that I hope I will have the energy to write about!
Figure 1: Normalised chart of S&P500, Nasdaq100, Shanghai Comp, Dollar Index, Asian Dollar Index, Gold & 10 Treasury yield (May2016-June2020)
From Figure 1 above, seems like it would have been a waste of time in FX markets to be long or short the USD (101.86 today) or even in Asian currencies (96.02 today) as well. Despite all the bullishness in China, it didn’t really matter being invested into Shanghai Composite too (103.69 today). Gold was benign throughout & only came into the fore in 2019 last year at 134.61 today. What made the bang for the buck was being invested into U.S. technology stocks with Nasdaq100 at 227.9 today that clearly outperformed the S&P500 at 155.27 today. The most volatile was U.S. treasuries where you better be short when rates went up from 2016 to Q4 2018 & then be long from that time to ride the plunge in yields till today!
May we live in interesting times!
AsianMacro 