Long $/IDR … as Indonesia cuts its nose to spite the face besides elections uncertainty


Asianmacro has touched briefly on shorting IDR together with NZD & Gold very recently on 6 May 2014 & they are already working well https://asianmacro.com/2014/05/06/sell-in-may-go-away-the-question-is-what/ .

Besides the Presidential elections uncertainty, concerns are mounting again on the Indonesian iron-ore exports ban unless they are processed in-country.  Seems like the country has cut its nose to spite the face & shot itself in its foot to me! http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a0e7256c-c455-11e3-b2c3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz312j7F7nE .

Asianmacro sees that all the mis-steps with elections uncertainty will make long $/IDR a good risk-reward trade to add on even at current levels 11570 spot & as for the Non-Deliverable-Forwards *NDF (11600 1-month NDF & 11700 3-month NDF).

From above chart, we should see 12,000 & maybe even 12,500 soon in spot $/IDR retracing back to its recent highs earlier in the year before the Jokowi feel good effect started.