Where to on Social Media … Facebook, Tencent or Rakuten ?

Before AsIanmacro takes his sip of this evening single malt whisky, time to snap a pic & share it on social media … Now wait, so should it be on Facebook, Whatsapp, Viber, WeChat, Instagram, …. the list goes on and it is definitely a chore these days on which to use!

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I have always been a techie & have pretty much every other social media app installed across my iOS, Android & Windows devices.  But when it comes to interacting with pretty much anybody in China, it’s Wechat (owned by Tencent – 700 HK)… forget about everything else.

Viber is just so sluggish eversince the recent updates & also the purchase by Rakuten (4755 JP) probably will turn it into another drive-by blasting of spam marketing everytime you use Viber in due course.  Facebook (FB US) even with its purchase of Whatsapp is just so yesterday … good for recording your life-story everywhere else except China & that Whatsapp .. come on, does not even have VOIP calling now & other features available in so many other messaging apps. From above normalised charts of FB US, 4755 JP & 700 HK; you can see FB & 4755 skyrocketed & outperformed 700, probably due to the wider investor base due to the listing in USA & Japan chasing them exuberantly.

This brings me to a ‘gun-to-head’ showdown, where despite the lofty valuations applied to FB US,, 4755 JP & 700 HK; if I need to own just one social media company to ‘pay-to-play’ & get on the boat … it will be 700 HK! From the chart below, look at the decent 25% correction from the recent highs & it has real revenues that continue to grow with monetisation of all the services and paid extras that people foot up in China to use. It’s a no brainer .. except at what levels to jump onto the bandwagon.

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For Asianmacro, it will be between 450-462 just shy of current 492 level.  It can easily come with any ‘Sell in May & go away!” portfolio adjustments soon in markets.  Stop loss sell will be < 425 not because I want to get out per se but purely from risk-management, but decent buying levels after will be 380-400 which I will be interested in getting back on again.