The Singapore Population Ponzi … Short SGD as funding FX

Image

Singapore has experienced the fastest rate of population growth anywhere in the world over the last 10 years.  However, if you go back in history to examine its rate of population growth and also literature on Total Factor Productivity, you will realise that there have been arguments from early 1990s levelled on the unsustainable and also myopic and unproductive utilisation of pure increase in labour as an input in Singapore to drive economic growth. http://www.nber.org/chapters/c10990.pdf

Asianmacro as a trader believes in the brevity of my musing & you can click on the above link to read in detail if you are interested in the paper by Prof. Alwyn Young from MIT published in 1992.  From the illustration above, we can see the close correlation between SGD appreciation and stock market (Straits Times Index – FSSTI) with Population growth % yoy.  It makes you wonder with the announced deliberate slowing down of the influx of foreigners by the Singapore government that drove this unprecedented pop in population, what will happen to SGD and FSSTI?

Anyway, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) recently concluded its semi-annual policy meeting in April 2014 without much fanfare http://www.mas.gov.sg/News-and-Publications/Speeches-and-Monetary-Policy-Statements/2014/Monetary-Policy-Statement-14-Apr-14.aspx .  For the longest time since 2008, SGD has unfailingly appreciated into and after each and every MAS policy meeting as a strong SGD policy (which is also the only policy tool MAS has that it uses) is trumped out time and again.  However, such an antiquated policy is long past its use-by date and it has been a case of weak USD against all major currencies in recent months rather than a strong SGD that resulted in $/SGD at 1.25 today.

Asianmacro will be very keen to established short SGD against GBP, AUD and EUR (*actually Asianmacro already have these positions for awhile and will add to them) on any potential SGD appreciation in May/summer if some mistaken belief by portfolio flows in SGD as a safe haven results in inflows over May/summer driving $/SGD to 1.2350-1.2450 levels.

 

Advertisements

3 thoughts on “The Singapore Population Ponzi … Short SGD as funding FX

  1. After you kill the monster you will see that it opened up a
    secret wall, follow the tunnel down to gain a treasure chest.
    All game news on Examiner can be followed at the Game On Facebook page and Twitter feed.

    Consider: Springing for the deluxe digital edition of the game, which
    comes with all the extra DLC available at launch, while the main game itself is pretty hefty anyway, it’s a nice gesture and costs only
    $10 more. Polished Landscapes even adds seasonal effects to the field, with some maps having pockets of snow or leaves instead of dreary
    dirt. Another concern was about the number of players that
    the game will be able to handle. All Paladins have one barrier to begin with, others are received at levels 22
    and 40. For those of you who have yet to play the game you can consider this a
    heads-up on what to expect and how to approach the game without finding yourself entrapped with running around the
    isle like a chicken without a head. Doing the math,
    that puts a year long subscription (before any discounts) at
    $290 including Play – Station Plus or Xbox Live Gold.
    Rangers are versatile and can be effective
    in many situations, making then utility players in the MMO.
    Sabotage Victor I-III ‘ Win 5, 20, and 50 Sabotage Matches.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s