Asia morning brief: Tue 3 May 2016

Good morning, post Mayday holiday in most Asian countries yesterday, we have Japan market close & if there’s a day when speculators wish to test downside in $/JPY with less threat of BOJ intervention, it’s today! 105.38 to 106.20 represent the levels that $/JPY rallied from since Oct 2014 when Abenomics took shape. It should provide support & will not be easy to break convincingly at one go if 101-102 is the final stop in this JPY rally. I’ve already covered shorts in $/JPY & NKY as the gap move lower post disappointing BOJ has brought them to the lower node in the bi-modal price distribution that I’ve previously discussed & risk reward is better in short S&P500, Dow or Eurostoxx50 for that matter. China Caixin Manufacturing PMI came out tad lower than expected at 49.4 & saw Asian equities ticked lower slightly. All eyes on RBA meeting decision at 12.30pm (HK/SIN time) & a rate cut is slightly priced in at 53% odds. Sell AUD on a spike to 0.7750/0.7800 is preferred on no hike or long GBP/AUD cross at 1.8840-1.8950 to ride on the market positioning of elevated GBP shorts (on Brexit fears) & AUD longs (on commodity rally).

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